The Newsletter That Never Sleeps- Edition #9, 6/17/21

THE NEWSLETTER THAT NEVER SLEEPS

WHAT IS ON MY BALLOT?

QUICK NEWS BITES: IS THERE POWER IN A UNION?/WHERE IN THE WORLD IS ERIC ADAMS?

ENDORSEMENT TRACKER

POLLING WATCH

  1. This is very bad news for Andrew Yang, who’s underperforming in every demographic that had previously propped up his campaign. His strongest demographics are also Adams’, and those voters prefer Adams by a wide margin. Yang had better hope that polls are not taking into account new and low-propensity voters, who may rank Yang based on name recognition or softer allegiance to the New York City Democratic Party. Given that turnout in early voting is pretty low, this scenario doesn’t seem super likely.
  2. Kathryn Garcia could, very realistically, win this thing. The two most recent polls show Garcia winning in the final round of RCV allocation, and cross tabs show that Garcia is the candidate that New Yorkers across the board find most palatable- the exact kind of candidate meant to benefit from ranked choice voting.
  3. Eric Adams’ support is stable, and he remains the undisputed frontrunner- but not comfortably. Some polls, mostly polls that show higher White turnout, suggest that Adams could lose the race to Garcia, or even Wiley, in the final round of counting. However, his strong coalition of working class, older, moderate voters, as well as a commanding lead with Black voters continues to put him over the top in most surveys.
  4. The last-minute push by progressives to coalesce around Maya Wiley has paid off in droves, but may not be enough to get her elected. Though Wiley’s numbers have more than doubled since AOC’s endorsement, her appeal is still very limited, compared to other the frontrunners, to younger White, liberal and affluent voters.
  5. The next Mayor of New York City may not win the most first choice votes. In the two most recent polls that show Adams losing to Garcia, Adams leads among first choice votes, only to lose in the final round of counting as White voters’ ballots put Garcia over the top. The leader of the unofficial results posted on Election Night will be the favorite to win the nomination, but there’s a good chance that they won’t.

CITY READS

COVID RECOVERY

WHAT HAPPENS AFTER ELECTION DAY?

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